His diabolical strategy to destroy NATO
Nataliya Bugayova, Kateryna Stepanenko and Frederick Kagan have written an illuminating report on the origins of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine for the Institute for the Study of War.
According to the report, Russian President Vladimir Putin did not invade Ukraine in 2022 out of fear of NATO. He invaded Ukraine because he believed NATO was weak, and because his attempts to regain control of Ukraine by other means had failed and he thought that it would be easy and safe to install a pro-Russian government in Kiev.
His goal was not to defend Russia against a non-existent threat, but rather to expand Russia's power, eradicate the Ukrainian state and destroy NATO, goals he still pursues.
By late 2021, Putin had convinced himself that Russia could safely launch a massive invasion of Ukraine to achieve two different goals: establish Russian control over Ukraine without significant resistance from the West, and break NATO's unity.
Putin has therefore launched a policy attacking NATO unity and expansion. Throughout his rule, Putin has made it a priority to prevent other former Soviet states and even other states, such as the Balkans, from joining NATO.
The Kremlin has also tried to undermine relations between members of the alliance. Putin accelerated his efforts to undermine Western unity and NATO after the Euromaidan revolution in 2014, which deposed Russia-friendly Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and installed a pro-Western government.
Russia responded by illegally occupying Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine in 2014.
The Russian occupation of Crimea and the Donbas in 2014 was prompted by Putin's perception of the need and opportunity to expand Russia's power and take control of Ukraine.
The Kremlin wanted to retain the Black Sea Fleet's strategic naval base in Crimea. The Kremlin feared that a pro-Western Ukrainian government would end the lease agreement under which Russia had retained the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol. Crimea still offers Russia strategic military advantages. Ukraine is rightly trying to deprive Russia of these advantages by continuing to fight over Crimea.
(SR and AmBar for Tagtik/Source: ISW/Photo: Nguyen Dung via Pixabay)
