Discovery of a potentially dangerous asteroid
An asteroid spotted at the end of December 2024 has more than a 1% chance of hitting the Earth in 2032. And it's not the Tesla that Elon Musk sent into space. Space agencies are vigilant and must wait until 2028.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has been closely monitored by astronomers and space agencies since its discovery on December 27, 2024 by the Rio Hurtado observatory in Chile. The celestial object, 40 to 100m in diameter, follows an orbit that could cross that of the Earth. The risk of an encounter is greater than 1%. This probability calls for surveillance, but not for a red alert. The last time an object reached this threshold was Apophis, discovered in 2004. It measured 320m. But after verifying the trajectories, a collision with the Earth is unlikely for at least another century. This is't yet certain for 2024 YR4.
We'll know in 2028
There's no need to cry Armageddon, even if 2024 YR4 could come dangerously close to our planet in 2032. NASA, ESA and the world of astronomy and space research aren't yet in a panic. In fact, when it passes close to us in 2028, we'll know whether the orbit of this celestial body will end up avoiding (most likely), bouncing off or crashing into our planet 4 years later! In many cases, the risk is reduced to 0 once the asteroid's path is known more precisely. In the meantime, the asteroid remains at level 3 on the 1999 Turin scale of impact risk, graduated from 0 to 10.
(MH with Olivier Duquesne - Source : La Dernière Heure - Picture : © picture alliance / Zoonar | Mopic)