"Harris wins by 50.015 per cent"
A statistician and polling specialist who correctly predicted the winner of the presidential election in 2008, 2012 and 2020 concludes from his simulations that it will be a super tense race to the White House.
From the 80,000 simulations Nate Silver ran with his model, Kamala Harris emerged as the winner of the US presidential election 40,012 times: a narrow 50.015 per cent of all simulations.
Silver's model averages all polls. Polls from more reliable sources weigh more heavily in it. According to this average, Harris would win with 48.6 per cent, compared to Trump's 47.6 per cent.
In 2008, Silver's model predicted the correct result in 49 out of 50 US states. He also predicted the correct result in the 2012 and 2020 elections. Only in 2016 he was wrong ... and then Donald Trump won.
(Fausto/Source: natesilver.net, Guardian/Illustration picture: kp yam Jayanath on Pixabay)