Conflicts

A pro-Russian separatist region in the heart of Moldavia, Transnistria is cold, very cold. Since January 1, 2025, Russia has cut off gas supplies to its vassal. The Moldovan authorities are to blame.

Moldavia, bordering Ukraine and Romania, is a state now caught in the net of gas blackmail. An eastern part of its territory, bordering Ukraine, has eluded it since 1992: Transnistria. The separatist region pledged allegiance to Moscow after proclaiming its independence. Russia provides protection with detachments of Red Army troops (around a thousand soldiers). Russia also supplied the region with energy, via the gas pipeline that crosses Ukraine. Since January 1, 2025, Transnistria has no longer been supplied with gas. Russia has decided to interrupt Gazprom's supplies via the pipeline crossing Ukrainian territory. The Tiraspol authorities were faced with a fait accompli.

Russian dependence

Unlike Gagauzia - Moldova's other pro-Russian autonomous zone since 1994, in reference to its allegiance to Tsar Alexander I of Russia in 1818 - Transnistria has no supply solutions under the control of Chisinau, the Moldovan capital. From then on, it could only rely on the Russian tap that “graciously” delivered gas to Tiraspoltransgaz. But this has dried up since the New Year. The Transnistrian authorities were able to stock up (13 million m³), but only enough to keep the economy going for 3-4 weeks. Inhabitants then turned to electric heating and cooking equipment. Creating a second layer to the energy crisis. Since then, industries have closed, gas is rationed and daily power cuts are imposed on the 400,000 inhabitants of this territory of 4163 km².

Colossal debt

The free delivery to Tiraspoltransgaz was in fact billed by Gazprom to Moldova. As Chisinau refused to pay for the separatists, the debt accumulated. Depending on the creditor and the debtor, it could amount to between 9 and 700 million dollars! The huge discrepancy in estimates demonstrates the Gordian knot in the strained relations between Russia and Moldova. Moldova can count on the solidarity of its Romanian neighbor to compensate for the end of Russian gas deliveries via Ukraine. Transnistria, on the other hand, doesn't benefit from this gas supply. Transnistria remains loyal to Moscow, but is asking its ally to find a solution with Moldova to avoid a humanitarian crisis. 

Political stakes

However, this crisis looks like a maneuver by Moscow to destabilize Moldova. The country held presidential elections in October and November 2024 under suspicion of Russian interference. The pro-European candidate Maia Sandu finally succeeded in defeating her pro-Russian opponent Alexandr Stoianoglo. In the country that is divided over the Ukrainian question, the next electoral deadline will be July 2025, with parliamentary elections. And the fate of the Transnistrians is a pretext for accusations from both sides. On the other hand, the freezing winter for these hostage inhabitants will be intense between the various Moldovan political currents, with the risk of a conflagration, including in Gagauzia. And let's not forget the pro-Russian militias, the Transnistrian army and the Russian troops stationed in the territories over which Chisinau has lost control. Moldova's future could therefore be played out over an energy crisis driven by a Russia seeking to extend its influence by any means, including by letting a population committed to its cause freeze to death!

(MH with Olivier Duquesne - Sources : La Libre Belgique, Radio France, 7sur7.be & La Dernière Heure - Picture : © picture alliance / NurPhoto | Andrea Mancini)