Conflicts

The door to negotiations was completely closed between Russia and Ukraine for a long time. But both nations now seem to be making very small concessions, creating a small crack, will a ray of hope soon shine through?

In the first months of the war, the warring parties were trying to negotiate a ceasefire. But that idea was quickly shelved with many expletives by both parties, and the US. After all, Ukraine did not want to give up an inch of land, while the Kremlin wanted to conquer all of Ukraine and install a new regime, and the United States hesitated and feared too much interference and a direct confrontation with Russia. But the cards are slightly different now.

The American Newsweek published a remarkable interview with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Wednesday. In it, Putin's Russian pit bull outlined the conditions for reaching a truce. These are not insignificant. After all, Ukraine must give up four areas to the Russians, of which the Donbas forms the heart. It must not become a member of NATO and must demilitarize.

Freezing of war
On Thursday, Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera reported that Kiev is willing to agree to a ceasefire based on the current front lines without recognizing “the people's republics.” A freeze on the war, based on the Korean model with a demarcation line, is what Het Nieuwsblad explains. In return, Kiev wants security guarantees from the US and rapid integration into the European Union. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky seemed to confirm this, in reality not in the same words, on X.

Small step towards rapprochement?
What has changed in the Kremlin's monologue is that Lavrov is no longer talking about ousting the regime. After more than two years of invasion, the Kremlin seems to realize that it has failed. Lavrov, unlike other Kremlin sources, does not argue that all of Ukraine must be conquered. And if there is one person who can speak for Putin, it is of course Lavrov. And it can certainly be called a striking observation that Lavrov spoke exceptionally about this to the American press. A well-thought-out strategy by the Kremlin?

Steel-hard conclusion
The reality speaks volumes: Russia cannot achieve the original goal of the invasion militarily. Not even if Western support for Ukraine dries up. The Kremlin is forced to face this. All of Ukraine had to be liberated, including Crimea. But in recent months, the Ukrainian president has also hinted that Ukraine can make some concessions. And Kiev's allies appear to share that view.

And in the meantime, Russia continues to lose men and material. On Tuesday, British intelligence announced that Russian losses – dead and wounded – had risen to more than 1,300 per day. Consequently, this situation appears to have become untenable for Russia. Then just make some concessions to resolve the conflict?

And what about the presidential elections in the US?
And what will be the influence of the American voter? If Donald Trump wins, the situation in Ukraine could change dramatically. After all, Trump already emphasized that Russia must not win the war and Ukraine must be prepared to put something on the table. Zelensky seems to be gradually coming to terms with this and is opening the door for small concessions. So for Trump, all that remains is to ensure that Putin does not prevail. But without American support for Ukraine, this appears to be a particularly difficult task. It promises to be a delicate tightrope act for the new American president, whoever it will be.

The war has become a real war of attrition with a lot of bloodshed. Will freezing the front be a first step towards peace?

(SR for Tagtik/Source: Newsweek - Corriere della Sera - BBC - Nieuwsblad/Picture: Pixabay)